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Sept 23, 2007, 10:28pm





Mafia Games :: Serenity :: Firefly :: On board the ship Serenity :: Day 1
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #810 on Sept 21, 2007, 7:56am »

Okay, I'm going to try to do this quick, because we're running short on time, but there's some points in here I VERY much disagree with, and some of them I touched on much earlier in the thread.


Sept 21, 2007, 4:05am, storyteller0910 wrote:
In which I go out on a limb

OR

The case for No-lynch

Hoo boy. I don't expect this to be a popular post, but I'd like to ask folks to at least read and consider. After a lot of re-reading, rethinking, and trying to apply some kind of reason to the situation, I have come to the conclusion that a No-lynch would be the best possible outcome of this Day given where we stand right now. I will outline why. See what you all think.

In M5 (The Sekham Game), the scum threw up a false Mason claim that was obviously intended to draw the town into lynching one of the claimants. One of the pro-town players (I think it was Queuing, but if you think I'm re-reading that thread right after re-reading this one, you're crazy) asked, in essence: "Why are we doing what the scum want us to do?"

As an observer, who knew he was pro-town, I thought that was a useful question. As I re-read, I tried to apply myself to figuring out the answer to one question: what do the scum want us to do?

The answer to that seems ostensibly obvious - they want us to kill a townie. Right? Well, sure... but how important, in the long run, is the outcome of this Day? Whatever we hit, there's a long way to go until the endgame. What else is of value to the scum?


FTR, this much I agree with.


Quote:
See, I had been thinking about this closed set-up from the wrong angle - from my own personal angle, where I know nothing. But what makes this set-up work as a pro-town measure is that it decreases the size of the information deficit 'twixt us and the scum. In an open game, the scum knows a LOT that the town does not; the town, collectively and individually, knows almost nothing that the scum do not (the identities of the power roles, and that's it).


This is definitively untrue. Let us say that the information from the setup is S, and the information that each individual play has is X and Xo is the information a vanilla townie knows (ie, he's town aligned). Let n be the number of scum. Then we can say that at the beginning of the game, the information that the town has is I = S + sum (1,p,Xj - Xo) + Xi. That is, the total information of the setup, whatever information the power roles have and, for each person, his own role. At the beginning, the Xj cancels with Xo (since the power roles have no information other than their own role) and thus it simplifies to I = S + Xi. However, the scum information is I = S + sum(1,n,Xj) which simplifies to I = S + nXo.

Thus, the information ratio of scum to town is (S + Xo):(S + nXo). However, because Sopen > Sclosed it necessarily follows that this ratio MUST be higher in a closed game because as S->inf, the ration approaches 1 and as S->0, the ratio approaches 1/n and n > 1.


Quote:
But in this game, it's different. The size of the information deficit is smaller. At baseline, the scum knew their own identities, and their role names, and that's it. They didn't know what pro-town power roles there might be, or what their powers might be, so they couldn't organize a plan to try to deal with those power roles. They didn't even know what kind of names the pro-town players had, so devising a false claim would be trickier. They knew one another, but apart from that, they were as in the dark as anyone, and that was to our advantage.


Besides the fact that your premise is false... you're right, the scum can't plan to deal with them. But the town can't plan to utilize them either. Plus, all they have to do to devise a false claim is either claim vanilla or come up with a power (eg, like Roosh claims to have)


Quote:
So what did the scum want, at the beginning of Day One? They wanted us to give them information. Just forcing a townie lynch wasn't especially useful. They wanted what we gave them, an orgy of bandwagons and role claims to fill in a whole mess of blank spaces on their scorecards.


This goes against fundamental mafia philosophy. The scum want to minimize information gain because otherwise they lose their advantage. Or, they trade a little bit of their information edge to chip a larger chunk from their numbers disadvantage.


Quote:
And how to make sure that happens? Why, promote the idea that a no-lynch is a terrible thing! Pressure everyone to make sure they vote, to make sure that a no-lynch doesn't happen. Why not? By doing that, you sound incredibly pro-town (after all, everyone knows a no-lynch is scummy. Right?). But you also generate an environment where the idea of finishing the Day without a target is considered the worst thing that could possibly happen - so players leap from target to target, piling up votes and forcing role claim after role claim, not stopping to look carefully at each prospective target for fear of ending up without a majority.

We're being played here. The scum want us to consider a no-lynch a terrible thing because as long as we think that, we will continue to frantically seek out new targets - and force fresh role claims - at all cost.


Huh? ??? A no-lynch minimizes information gain, plus it gives THEM to opportunity to decide who dies, thus necessarily helping their cause for a numerical advantage.


Quote:
I propose that a better Crew strategy for this particular game is to proceeed in a more measured fashion from here on out. Review the case against each player carefully. Don't escalate so quickly to the point of forcing a role claim just because you want to avoid a no-lynch. And if that means having no target in which you have confidence at the end of the Day, so be it.


I agree with all but the last bit for the reason I stated above.


Quote:
Because for all those saying that a lynch is the only way we'll get information - this is unlikely to be true. ToNight, the scum will kill (as will any other role[s] with killing powers). We'll get information from those deaths. The scum can't just sit back and kill no one - sooner or later, if they do that, investigative roles will sink them. Speaking of which, we'll also get information from our investigative roles. If we have no target in whom we are confident, we are better off going into tomorrow with one fewer dead Crewperson.


This is wrong. We're letting them select what information we gain through a no-lynch. They could easily choose someone, like dnooman, who's information seems to be largely accepted by the town and thus confirming it adds little to what we know.


Quote:
So there you have it. I have a funny feeling that this opinion might get me into hot water toMorrow. We'll see. But I really think that by operating under the "lynch-at-all-costs" hysteria under which we have been operating, we are doing what the scum wants us to do. Why are we doing that?


You're confound tootin'. This is precisely the type of twisting of logic to sound pro-town that I would expect from you. I'll be taking a closer look at you to determine if it is deliberate or just a mistake.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #811 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:00am »

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Just takin notes
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #812 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:02am »


Sept 21, 2007, 7:56am, Spaceman Spiff wrote:
<snip>
This is definitively untrue. Let us say that the information from the setup is S, and the information that each individual play has is X and Xo is the information a vanilla townie knows (ie, he's town aligned). Let n be the number of scum. Then we can say that at the beginning of the game, the information that the town has is I = S + sum (1,p,Xj - Xo) + Xi. That is, the total information of the setup, whatever information the power roles have and, for each person, his own role. At the beginning, the Xj cancels with Xo (since the power roles have no information other than their own role) and thus it simplifies to I = S + Xi. However, the scum information is I = S + sum(1,n,Xj) which simplifies to I = S + nXo.

Thus, the information ratio of scum to town is (S + Xo):(S + nXo). However, because Sopen > Sclosed it necessarily follows that this ratio MUST be higher in a closed game because as S->inf, the ration approaches 1 and as S->0, the ratio approaches 1/n and n > 1.
<snip>


Can you say this part in English?
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #813 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:03am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:00am, Mad The Swine wrote:
Rugger, Pygmy, mhaye, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, dotchan, CatInASuit, Greedy Smurf, nesta, Spaceman Spiff, NAF1138, sinjin, atarus

Just takin notes


Huh??
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #814 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:06am »


Sept 21, 2007, 7:39am, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies wrote:

I think we each need to find our individual sweet spots 'twixt putting too much weight into name-claims and disregarding them altogether.

If we assume Mad is indeed who he says he is (a Sanchez brother), as he says he is (town, and one of two masons, the other being his brother), that shows that names can indeed be significant on their own and should not be preemptively disregarded.


But that's PRECISELY my point, the fact that his name is Hector Sanchez is meaninglessly redundant if he's telling the truth. This is fundamentally no different than, in a non-themed game, if he'd said "I'm a mason, and there's only one other." The fact that his name is Hector Sanchez and not George Mason or something else bears NO difference on the veracity of his claim. To say ANYTHING else makes assumptions about the set up of the game that are unverifiable until everything is known.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #815 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:08am »

I think they're the members on line when he took a snapshot. The fact that one isn't (iirc) in the game was a bit of a giveaway.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #816 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:11am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:08am, mhaye wrote:
I think they're the members on line when he took a snapshot.

If that's the case, then I have to wonder why I'm not on the list -- I've been here all day.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #817 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:13am »

15 minutes left.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #818 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:14am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:11am, Hal Briston wrote:

Sept 21, 2007, 8:08am, mhaye wrote:
I think they're the members on line when he took a snapshot.

If that's the case, then I have to wonder why I'm not on the list -- I've been here all day.

Iirc, the list of people online is those who have made a page request within a length of time, in order of time since they made the request. If it's been (say) 20 minutes since you last loaded the page I don't think you'd show up.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #819 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:15am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:02am, Rugger, Pygmy wrote:

Can you say this part in English?


I'm sorry, it's how I think with regard to information (a large part of my thesis topic is information theory... go figure). I also make some short cuts to simplify, so I won't say its 100% accurate, it's just a summary.

Basically, there's some information that's shared, and there's some information that's not. In mafia, the non-shared information is necessarily greater for scum than town (because they know who is and who is not scum, which is the fundamental goal). So we can say that a given town's person knows whatever he alone knows (his own role information) and the shared information. We can also say that a scum knows what the scum knows (which is necessarily more than what a particular townperson knows) plus the shared information. Clearly, because the shared information is identical, a scum will know more than any town person.

Now, let's simplifiy the formation (S + X) / (S + Y) and say S is the shared information, X is what the town knows, Y is what the scum know, and X < Y (because of what I said above). Stick in any values you want, as long as X < Y, and what you'll notice is that for a given X and Y, when S is smaller, that ratio becomes smaller or IOW the town will know less compared to what the scum know. Thus, because there's necessarily less information in a closed game than an open one, it naturally follows that the scum have a greater informational advantage in a closed game than an open one.

Does that clear it up at all, or is it still confusing?
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #820 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:16am »

PLEASE PLEASE don't let this be a no-lynch. People who held off, don't let Storyteller obnubilate the no-lynch and get in some votes on dotchan.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #821 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:17am »

Then I suggest you switch your vote Spaceman Spiff along with anyone else who wants to end the night with a lynch
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #822 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:17am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:16am, Spaceman Spiff wrote:
obnubilate


... what?

(I'm not voting for Dot because I am not convinced she's scum. Sorry.)
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #823 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:18am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:14am, mhaye wrote:

Sept 21, 2007, 8:11am, Hal Briston wrote:

If that's the case, then I have to wonder why I'm not on the list -- I've been here all day.

Iirc, the list of people online is those who have made a page request within a length of time, in order of time since they made the request. If it's been (say) 20 minutes since you last loaded the page I don't think you'd show up.


This is correct.

Conseqently, the most recent page renewals can be told from the left to the right. This is why you, yourself, are almost always on the most left. The one right after you (or, in very rare cases, before you) is the person who most recently loaded a new page up right before you did.

The last person (the one to the most right) is the one about to go OFF of the list (and probably has been looking at the same page for about fifteen minutes--however if it's a fast page loading game for people, it could be as little as five even, meaning all of the people before that last person loaded up new pages in the last 1-4 minutes). Make sense everyone?
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #824 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:18am »

NAF, I thought I changed my vote back to dotchan, but I'm not seeing it in your vote count, if not... here it is
unvote CatInASuit
vote dotchan
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #825 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:18am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:16am, Spaceman Spiff wrote:
PLEASE PLEASE don't let this be a no-lynch. People who held off, don't let Storyteller obnubilate the no-lynch and get in some votes on dotchan.


I thought he made a good point. Although I don't know what obnubilate means. I figure we're still going to get information in the Morning.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #826 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:20am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:17am, mhaye wrote:

Sept 21, 2007, 8:16am, Spaceman Spiff wrote:
obnubilate


... what?

(I'm not voting for Dot because I am not convinced she's scum. Sorry.)


http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/obnubilate

Let me ask you then, do you agree that a no-lynch is better than a lynch?
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #827 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:20am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:17am, mhaye wrote:

Sept 21, 2007, 8:16am, Spaceman Spiff wrote:
obnubilate


... what?

(I'm not voting for Dot because I am not convinced she's scum. Sorry.)


Seems sort of scummy to me that you want to have a lynch but not participate in it.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #828 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:21am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:17am, CatInASuit wrote:
Then I suggest you switch your vote Spaceman Spiff along with anyone else who wants to end the night with a lynch


Apologies, I thought I had, but apparently not. I only noticed when I checked the vote list.


C'mon, we only need one more vote!
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #829 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:21am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:20am, Spaceman Spiff wrote:

Sept 21, 2007, 8:17am, mhaye wrote:


... what?

(I'm not voting for Dot because I am not convinced she's scum. Sorry.)


http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/obnubilate

Let me ask you then, do you agree that a no-lynch is better than a lynch?


If dotchan is a townie, yes. If she's scum, no.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #830 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:21am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:20am, hockeymonkey wrote:

Sept 21, 2007, 8:17am, mhaye wrote:


... what?

(I'm not voting for Dot because I am not convinced she's scum. Sorry.)


Seems sort of scummy to me that you want to have a lynch but not participate in it.


nevermind then
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #831 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:22am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:20am, hockeymonkey wrote:

Sept 21, 2007, 8:17am, mhaye wrote:


... what?

(I'm not voting for Dot because I am not convinced she's scum. Sorry.)


Seems sort of scummy to me that you want to have a lynch but not participate in it.


Like I just said to CatInASuit, I thought I'd changed my vote already, but it looks like I simply forgot.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #832 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:22am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:21am, Spaceman Spiff wrote:

Sept 21, 2007, 8:17am, CatInASuit wrote:
Then I suggest you switch your vote Spaceman Spiff along with anyone else who wants to end the night with a lynch


Apologies, I thought I had, but apparently not. I only noticed when I checked the vote list.


C'mon, we only need one more vote!


OK! HERE IT IS!

oops... I already had voted...
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #833 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:23am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:21am, Rugger, Pygmy wrote:

Sept 21, 2007, 8:20am, Spaceman Spiff wrote:


http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/obnubilate

Let me ask you then, do you agree that a no-lynch is better than a lynch?


If dotchan is a townie, yes. If she's scum, no.


Well, duh, but how do we know unless we lynch her? The scum sure as heck ain't gonna be whackin' her anytime soon.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #834 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:23am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:15am, Spaceman Spiff wrote:

Sept 21, 2007, 8:02am, Rugger, Pygmy wrote:

Can you say this part in English?


I'm sorry, it's how I think with regard to information (a large part of my thesis topic is information theory... go figure). I also make some short cuts to simplify, so I won't say its 100% accurate, it's just a summary.

Basically, there's some information that's shared, and there's some information that's not. In mafia, the non-shared information is necessarily greater for scum than town (because they know who is and who is not scum, which is the fundamental goal). So we can say that a given town's person knows whatever he alone knows (his own role information) and the shared information. We can also say that a scum knows what the scum knows (which is necessarily more than what a particular townperson knows) plus the shared information. Clearly, because the shared information is identical, a scum will know more than any town person.

Now, let's simplifiy the formation (S + X) / (S + Y) and say S is the shared information, X is what the town knows, Y is what the scum know, and X < Y (because of what I said above). Stick in any values you want, as long as X < Y, and what you'll notice is that for a given X and Y, when S is smaller, that ratio becomes smaller or IOW the town will know less compared to what the scum know. Thus, because there's necessarily less information in a closed game than an open one, it naturally follows that the scum have a greater informational advantage in a closed game than an open one.

Does that clear it up at all, or is it still confusing?


I look at it in two ways. When S increases, it gives X a greater percentage of info compared to what they know. OTOH, when S increases, it gives Y more information compared to what they need to know. Sometimes, S can benefit town but not scum (because scum already know a person's not in their group).
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #835 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:24am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:18am, Spaceman Spiff wrote:
NAF, I thought I changed my vote back to dotchan, but I'm not seeing it in your vote count, if not... here it is
unvote CatInASuit
vote dotchan


If you did I missed it, my apologies.

1 - atarus - (hockeymonkey)

4 - CatinaSuit - (Yattara, Pygmy Rugger, Captain Klutz, panamajack)

14 - zuma/Dotchan - (Roosh, CatInASuit, sinjin, Cookies, drainbead, diggitcamera, Hal Briston, zeriel, Mad The Swine, FCoD, Diomedes, mtgman, Idle Thoughts. Spaceman Spiff (BlaM))



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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #836 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:24am »

Where's Roosh and his offer to be the hammer? Or did he already sign off for the day?
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #837 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:25am »

There are currently four people online who could provide it.

Pygmy Rugger, hockeymonkey, mhaye and Greedy Smurf.

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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #838 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:27am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:23am, Rugger, Pygmy wrote:

Sept 21, 2007, 8:15am, Spaceman Spiff wrote:


I'm sorry, it's how I think with regard to information (a large part of my thesis topic is information theory... go figure). I also make some short cuts to simplify, so I won't say its 100% accurate, it's just a summary.

Basically, there's some information that's shared, and there's some information that's not. In mafia, the non-shared information is necessarily greater for scum than town (because they know who is and who is not scum, which is the fundamental goal). So we can say that a given town's person knows whatever he alone knows (his own role information) and the shared information. We can also say that a scum knows what the scum knows (which is necessarily more than what a particular townperson knows) plus the shared information. Clearly, because the shared information is identical, a scum will know more than any town person.

Now, let's simplifiy the formation (S + X) / (S + Y) and say S is the shared information, X is what the town knows, Y is what the scum know, and X < Y (because of what I said above). Stick in any values you want, as long as X < Y, and what you'll notice is that for a given X and Y, when S is smaller, that ratio becomes smaller or IOW the town will know less compared to what the scum know. Thus, because there's necessarily less information in a closed game than an open one, it naturally follows that the scum have a greater informational advantage in a closed game than an open one.

Does that clear it up at all, or is it still confusing?


I look at it in two ways. When S increases, it gives X a greater percentage of info compared to what they know. OTOH, when S increases, it gives Y more information compared to what they need to know. Sometimes, S can benefit town but not scum (because scum already know a person's not in their group).


Any shared information is always useful to town, it may or may not be useful to scum. The point I'm trying to make is that this is a game of information, the closer the town gets to perfect information, the closer we are to winning. That is, as soon as we know who all the scum are, if we have enough townies left, we win.

Either way, I'll flesh out more about information theory tomorrow, since I odn't have time now.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #839 on Sept 21, 2007, 8:27am »


Sept 21, 2007, 8:25am, CatInASuit wrote:
There are currently four people online who could provide it.

Pygmy Rugger, hockeymonkey, mhaye and Greedy Smurf.


And (by my clock, anyway) they failed to do so.

Terrific.
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