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Sept 21, 2007, 12:28am





Mafia Games :: Serenity :: Firefly :: On board the ship Serenity :: Day 1
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1230 on Yesterday at 6:49am »
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Yesterday at 6:20am, mtgman wrote:

Yesterday at 5:59am, drainbead wrote:
I don't want to quote that whole manifesto for a tiny portion where I'd probably mess up the nested quotes, mtgman, but could that mention of Hal in the third quote box down in your last post have been a Diomedes breadcrumb?
I would hope he wouldn't breadcrumb if all he had to go on was "fuzzy screens". This was also way back on page 3 when Hal was more active. He hasn't been mentioned much recently because of his haitus, but he was still on the radar as an active poster at the time.

Still, something to think about, and a good close read find. Not enough to change my vote at the moment because most of my vote is based on his "throwing stones and then chickening out of an actual fight" behavior. All the role claims on Day 1 have muddied the waters a lot and I'm sticking with my scumdar over role claims for roles I don't even know exist(because it's a closed game).

Enjoy,
Steven


Well, first off, assume his claim is true. He watches someone and gets fuzzy screens. He has two potential assumptions to make that don't require too much reaching to get to. First, that there's a roleblocker out there and they decided to block him, or second, that Hal has some power that blocks investigation by the Crew. If the former is the case, no biggie. But just in case the latter is the case, shouldn't he breadcrumb it a bit, so that if he's nightkilled someone might be able to pick up on the fact that Hal could potentially be a powerful anti-Crew character?

I'm not sure how Hal's claim fits into this, but seeing as it was made long after Dio made his potential breadcrumb AND after he roleclaimed, we can separate the two ideas for now.

One final question for you, mtgman: If push comes to shove, would you switch your vote toDay to avoid a no-lynch?
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1231 on Yesterday at 6:54am »
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Yesterday at 6:49am, Rugger, Pygmy wrote:

Yesterday at 6:37am, drainbead wrote:
<snip>
I was defining "late" as "more than half of the voters on the wagon had voted before you rang in. <snip>


If by "rang in", you meant voted, then, by definition, all votes are made after all previous votes for that person have been cast. I fail to understand. If you mean that I happened to be in the second half of those that voted before a role claim was made, I'd like to point out that all role claims toDay have been made before a potential lynchee garnered, IIRC, eight votes. Eight. That number is ridiculously low, it's no wonder I was fourth through eighth in exactly two "bandwagons", which didn't even reach double digits.


And that's a very sensible counter-argument to what I'm saying (well, except for that first sentence, which I'm still trying to parse). I agree that the role-claims were all made MUCH too quickly, and if the claimants had allowed more time to let the bandwagons truly develop before claiming, this Day might have gone much more smoothly.

Out of curiosity (and this is a general question) at what point SHOULD we claim if the wagon rolls our way? 10 votes? 12?
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1232 on Yesterday at 6:58am »
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Oh my bad. I thought today was the 20th.
Nevermind then. Carry on.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1233 on Yesterday at 7:00am »
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Yesterday at 6:28am, storyteller0910 wrote:
OK, let's say I accept everything you've said. Which, in some ways, I do - Dio's claim does seem to rely on a lot of unlikely (but not impossible) coincidences. I still don't understand your vote for him, in the absence of a counterclaim or any real evidence that he is lying.
[snip]
On the other hand, if you're wrong, we lose a town power role. Unless there's another Chia Bingo Manager floating around, we can't reverse that decision.

Or, in other words, I'm going to see your Occam's Razor and raise you a Pascal's Wager. Thoughts?
Two main thoughts here. Firstly, in a closed game situation roleclaims aren't as valuable as they are when they fit a framework published by the mods. If you can make up a role, which MIGHT fit the theme, you can claim it. On Day 1 claiming a power role(or high-profile role) is probably fairly safe from a counter-claim, even if it's false. Why? Because only a fool of a real power role player would counterclaim and put a huge target on their head for that Night. That allows a trade of a scum for a power role, very much to the scum's advantage. If I were a power role and I saw someone claim my role, I'd just look for ways to out them without giving myself away by counterclaiming. To use your Pascal's Wager analogy, what do we have to lose by believing the roleclaim? It costs us the chance of acting on the scummy behavior which led to the roleclaim. If we believe every uncontested roleclaim(no matter how improbable) then we'll get roleclaims right and left(as we have) and come to our deadline with no consensus(as we are). To my mind the scumdar is more reliable than the roleclaim at this point because we don't know what the roles are or how to evaluate a roleclaim.

Secondly, we'll get into the particulars of this roleclaim. A watcher role is fairly common in Mafia games. The reporter, who tails a player to watch them at night and see what they're doing. It will reveal anything that player does at night, or if they don't have a night action, will show they stayed at home, which is equivelant to a reading of vanilla town. The delivery boy/caterer, who chooses a player each night to deliver food to. Pizza = Mafia, Sandwich = Town, mix and match as appropriate to the theme. The Night Watchman, who patrols each night and has a chance of spotting anyone doing a night action, if they've chosen the right area to watch or the right person to watch.

About the only role I can see which might fit the role Diomedes described would be the Night Watchman, but again the watchman generally gets "you saw something" or "you saw empty streets" Not "you're not sure what you saw". The recurring theme is they have definitive results, either a positive or a negative. Even in the case of poor investigative roles like the beat cop(50% chance of success) they THINK they're right. Their answer is clear, even if it's wrong. This doesn't fit what Diomedes described. Kat has said they didn't go too weird with the roles they made up for this game, so a new, uber-crippled, night watchman role would seem unlikely. A made-up role with enough fuzzy details to be unverifiable seems the most likely explanation to me.

To sum up, vote stays where it is because I don't think roleclaims are as valuable in closed setups, and because the role claimed doesn't sound credible.

Enjoy,
Steven
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1234 on Yesterday at 7:04am »
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I'm not saying I'm completely buying Dio's role at this point, but:

Isn't "fuzzy screens" the same as "empty streets", if you "mix and match as appropriate to the theme"?
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1235 on Yesterday at 7:08am »
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I always considered having about 2/3 of the votes needed to kill as a good area to start thinking about a RoleClaim. Because you want to give enough time for people to unvote but also to do it in such a way that its not at the last min. and people are forced just to "unvote" before being able to even discuss your claims. It's a fine balance :shrug:

And as much as I hate to WIFOM:
Also, are we SURE that the FuzzyScreens MEAN something? What if Fuzzy screens mean that the watched person simply didn't DO anything.
@$%#$@%$@ ~self editted because it won't help town to WIFOM about this strategy, i'll just skip to my conclusion~

All I'm saying is, we don't know what the fuzzy screens mean yet. That could just be your flavor for "the dude didn't do anything." So I think you need more info before you can jump around to conclusions such as being role-blocked. Though each day that you get a fuzzy screen, you're going to look scummier in my eyes, unless that's your normal "inconclusive" flavor. But still. :Shrug: You're the one who's gotta deal with figuring out that part.
Really wish you didn't have to role claim though. But meh. I'm just cantankerous at this point.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1236 on Yesterday at 7:08am »
[Quote]


Yesterday at 6:49am, Rugger, Pygmy wrote:
If you mean that I happened to be in the second half of those that voted before a role claim was made, I'd like to point out that all role claims toDay have been made before a potential lynchee garnered, IIRC, eight votes. Eight. That number is ridiculously low, it's no wonder I was fourth through eighth in exactly two "bandwagons", which didn't even reach double digits.


For reference, I looked at the role-claim stats while I was researching Cat's posts.

Dnooman claimed at 9 votes against him.
Roosh claimed at 8 votes against him.
Mad initially claimed mason at 6 votes against him. I believe he had 5 when he fully claimed.
Dotchan claimed at 2 votes against her.
Diomedes claimed at 4 votes against him.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1237 on Yesterday at 7:20am »
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Yesterday at 6:49am, drainbead wrote:
Well, first off, assume his claim is true. He watches someone and gets fuzzy screens. He has two potential assumptions to make that don't require too much reaching to get to. First, that there's a roleblocker out there and they decided to block him, or second, that Hal has some power that blocks investigation by the Crew. If the former is the case, no biggie. But just in case the latter is the case, shouldn't he breadcrumb it a bit, so that if he's nightkilled someone might be able to pick up on the fact that Hal could potentially be a powerful anti-Crew character?
The second case you describe(an immune to investigation Hal) doesn't match up with any Mafia roles I'm familiar with. Even Godfather type roles typically give a reading, a false one to be sure, but a reading nonetheless. So we're down to a roleblocker choosing to block Mr. Universe(on Night 1 when no one but the scum have any information). A pro-town roleblocker has a 1/27 chance of blocking Mr. Universe. A anti-town roleblocker has a 1/(27-scum) chance of blocking Mr. Universe. Both long odds when we don't know if Mr. Universe, a pro-town roleblocker, or a anti-town roleblocker even exist.
Yesterday at 6:49am, drainbead wrote:
I'm not sure how Hal's claim fits into this, but seeing as it was made long after Dio made his potential breadcrumb AND after he roleclaimed, we can separate the two ideas for now.
I'm not sure I agree. I believe Hal's comments are vital to evaluating Diomedes' roleclaim. Firstly, I don't believe Hal would have said ANYTHING at all if he were a anti-town super-scum. If Diomedes is NOT lying, then Hal hits the radar as someone who cast doubt on a power role. The "fuzzy screens" comment and the ealier breadcrumb(if deciphered Tomorrow) would not be enough to place Hal in danger, but adding that comment would be self-incriminating. I just don't see a reason for a super-scum to do this at all. Save the info about being investigated for Tonight on the scum board, and off Diomedes with a Night kill. Now we find the breadcrumb, but since it was based off "fuzzy screens" Hal is probably safe.

If anything I think Hal has been oversharing, way oversharing, but that's not a scum trait.

Yesterday at 6:49am, drainbead wrote:
One final question for you, mtgman: If push comes to shove, would you switch your vote toDay to avoid a no-lynch?
Yes, even if I'm the hammer vote and suspicion falls on me. No Lynch is bad, worse than my death on Day 2 would be if I'm wrong. The town NEEDS information and a death, of our choice, is the best way to get it.

Enjoy,
Steven
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 VOTE COUNT
« Reply #1238 on Yesterday at 7:20am »
[Quote]

I meant to post this before lunch, but work got in the way.

ANYWAY here is a vote count.

dotchan (8): Roosh, CatInASuite, sinjin, Greedy Smurf, Diomedes, Cookies, drainbead, diggitcamera

CatInASuit (7): atarus, Yattara, Pygmy Rugger, Idle Thoughts, Spaceman BlaM, storyteller, FCoD

Diomedes (3): Captain Klutz, panamajack, mtgman

Idle Thoughts (2): dnooman, zeriel

atarus (1): Mad The Swine
tragic (1): hockeymonkey

22 of 28 votes cast.
25 hours 6 minutes 'till the deadline


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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1239 on Yesterday at 7:23am »
[Quote]

"Lynch Dot because she's a distraction"? Deja vu, man. I guess I'm more expendable than Roosh, huh? :'(

(Too bad there isn't runoff voting - you should have seen the frenzy at deadline during Day Five. ;D)

Dio's claim could be explanable as a "no result", which is why I unvoted him. But I do find it convenient that he claimed a no result on Hal - that way, we're all that more uncertain about Hal's alignment. (If he decided to fake a guilty or innocent, it would have definitively outed Hal's standing one way or another should Diomedes end up being killed.)

I'm sorely tempted to even up the votecount and maybe have a shot at not being lynched toDay, but I don't know if that's a good idea.

Given my record, maybe I should start voting for people I'm least suspicious of. :P
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1240 on Yesterday at 7:25am »
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Yesterday at 7:04am, Rugger, Pygmy wrote:
I'm not saying I'm completely buying Dio's role at this point, but:

Isn't "fuzzy screens" the same as "empty streets", if you "mix and match as appropriate to the theme"?
I can't say what our moderators were thinking, but were I running the game it wouldn't be. "Quiet Screens" with no suspicious activity would be the equivelant of "Empty Streets" for me. Fuzzy Screens would be an inconclusive, tantamount to a role-block on an investigator. Quiet Screens would mean that person wasn't up to anything that night, and Activity would show what that person was doing. That's just how I would do it if I were moderator. Since we don't know the possible outcomes of a Mr. Universe investigation(or indeed if there is a Mr. Universe at all) it's hard to tell.

Enjoy,
Steven
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1241 on Yesterday at 7:28am »
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Work whirlwind again today, it would seem. :-/

In case it swallows me completely:

- my vote (on dot) is in place
- yes, I would consider changing my vote to avoid a no-lynch
- I have no idea if I'd continue to pursue dot tomorrow, considering how the tides have been shifting in this game.


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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1242 on Yesterday at 7:40am »
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First off, everyone, we have two clear front runners with about one day left. I HIGHLY recommend that everyone who is not voting for one of the front runners, your point is made that you find them more scummy, so please consider the cases made against one of the top two and make a choice.

For those voting for dotchan, there is as reasonable of a case against her as can be expected in the circumstances; HOWEVER, I think if you're voting for her because her name claim is Ramiro (or, if the case may be that you're NOT because of that), I would say... PLEASE do not let that affect your vote. That is, trying to decide if Ramiro should or shouldn't be in the game is meta-gaming, and I would highly suspect that NAF and Kat, if it isn't the case with dotchan probably have SOME mechanism in the game to help defeat the mass claim and keep fans from having an advantage that is too large.

Some updating analysis to follow...
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1243 on Yesterday at 7:44am »
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Sept 19, 2007, 1:39pm, dnooman wrote:
That said, I'm currently suspecting Catinasuit, SS Blam, DrainBead, Idle Thoughts, and the uber-lurkers. There is almost a 0% chance that I identified all of the scum, and possibly a greater possibility that none of them are scum. I would bet though, that at least one of them is scum.


I understand the rest of your suspicions (though I'm not as certain abotu some of them as you seem to be), but I would appreciate if you could substantiate in some fashion your suspicion of me. Otherwise, this seems more like a "drive-by-smudging" and neither serves to convince others I should be suspected, or provide me with an opportunity to defend myself.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1244 on Yesterday at 7:49am »
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Yesterday at 7:25am, mtgman wrote:
<snip>Since we don't know the possible outcomes of a Mr. Universe investigation(or indeed if there is a Mr. Universe at all) it's hard to tell.

Enjoy,
Steven


I think you're right.

Dio, do you know what the heck "fuzzy screens" means?
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1245 on Yesterday at 7:50am »
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Yesterday at 7:20am, mtgman wrote:
The second case you describe(an immune to investigation Hal) doesn't match up with any Mafia roles I'm familiar with. Even Godfather type roles typically give a reading, a false one to be sure, but a reading nonetheless. So we're down to a roleblocker choosing to block Mr. Universe(on Night 1 when no one but the scum have any information). A pro-town roleblocker has a 1/27 chance of blocking Mr. Universe. A anti-town roleblocker has a 1/(27-scum) chance of blocking Mr. Universe. Both long odds when we don't know if Mr. Universe, a pro-town roleblocker, or a anti-town roleblocker even exist.

A lot of this could be cleared up if Dio would care to answer a question (and, as far as I'm concerned, "none of your gorram business" is as valid as "yes" or "no" here):

Dio, as far as you're aware, does your investigative ability have a less than 100% chance of getting a reading?
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1246 on Yesterday at 7:52am »
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I'm still reading through the Day.

I finally isolated what was bothering me about the initial crusade against Dotchan.

It was the posts of Idle Thoughts.

He pretty much drove the early lynching cry, and his crusade was based on what I thought at the time was a false assumption. One I still believe is wrong.

All the way through the 800s, he harped on how "Alliance Town" was a separate role in the game from crewman. He still had this belief in post 1036.

From the structure of my role PM and assertions made by others, "Alliance Town" doesn't exist. The phrase used is something equivalent to "citizen of the Alliance" - ie a member of the nation known as "The Alliance".

Players are either Crew-aligned or Alliance-aligned. Their nationality status is utterly and completely independent of their game alignment.

And this confusion is why Dotchan is being lynched.

If I had to vote right now, it would be for Idle. But I will not. Instead I'm going to complete my reread. But unless I have a revelation 'twixt now and finishing the thread, I will not be voting for Dotchan. If it's her or no-one, I'd rather lynch no-one right now.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1247 on Yesterday at 8:25am »
[Quote]


Yesterday at 7:50am, Hal Briston wrote:

A lot of this could be cleared up if Dio would care to answer a question (and, as far as I'm concerned, "none of your gorram business" is as valid as "yes" or "no" here):

Dio, as far as you're aware, does your investigative ability have a less than 100% chance of getting a reading?


Dio responded to a similiar query from me a few pages ago and said as far as he was aware he had no chance of failure on his observations.

I have no suspicions of Dotchan being scum so I'm going to
Unvote Dotchan for the moment.

I haven't really seen the scummy behaviour from CatinaSuit so I'm going to have a reread of his posts and see what I can see before voting again.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1248 on Yesterday at 8:26am »
[Quote]


Yesterday at 7:49am, Rugger, Pygmy wrote:

Yesterday at 7:25am, mtgman wrote:
<snip>Since we don't know the possible outcomes of a Mr. Universe investigation(or indeed if there is a Mr. Universe at all) it's hard to tell.

Enjoy,
Steven


I think you're right.

Dio, do you know what the heck "fuzzy screens" means?


I'm afraid not. Because of Hal's statement, I'm leaning very far away from "no result" because of the fact that Hal state he had a nighttime interaction with another player last night. From my understanding of my role, I should have seen it.
It's either:
a) My machines broke of their own accord (unreliable cop)
b) Someone broke my machines (roleblocker)
c) cameras don't work in Hal's house (Hal is unWatchable)
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1249 on Yesterday at 8:28am »
[Quote]


Yesterday at 7:50am, Hal Briston wrote:

Dio, as far as you're aware, does your investigative ability have a less than 100% chance of getting a reading?


Not as far as I know. Mr. Universe has cameras on everything and anything. My limits are only on what I can pay attention to.
(There was nothing in my role PM about % of being right or wrong)
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1250 on Yesterday at 8:50am »
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Sept 19, 2007, 2:16pm, panamajack wrote:
Well, the good thing I can say to you, dnooman, is that at least you reserved your role claim a bit. Even back then, it was considered 'early' (and you're essentially vanilla). Now we have folks almost signing up just to get their role-claims out.

Here's the vote totals that were on before each role claim we've had so far (with the claiming post after). I can't guarantee total accuracy.

dnooman (9) 1.506
Roosh (8) 1.601
dotchan (2) 1.864
Mad (6) 1.767 ("I am a Mason.")
Diomedes (5) 1.1104



Please stop it.

Role claiming ought to be a last resort. If you really think we're going to let things get to 50% votes before you get a chance to role claim, you are underestimating the crew. Anyone who does this (hammers before a claim chance, even 'accidentally') will get tarred and feathered before nightfall. All we've done so far is give up our info to the scum like a two-bit doxy.

So don't think we're going to run the bandwagon off the rails at the slightest chance we get. It's not going to happen. [... until the final day, that is ... unfortunately, I came to this realization a bit too late I fear.]


As for diomedes, I'm not buying the role claim. Hal Briston's information is interesting as well. On the other hand, tomorrow we'll have a slightly better chance of verifying, so I'm not exactly sure we need to lynch him today, if there's a more likely candidate available.


This is post 1171. This is precisely the type of tone to which I was refering. I do not recall if I had placed panamajack on my list explicitly, but he is there now.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1251 on Yesterday at 8:54am »
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Ok, if I put together what I know to be true, and take Dio at face value, then --

--Dio should have been able to investigate me without fail, barring outside interference.
--I was available for investigation (I know there was a theory posited about the person who successfully investigated me also blocked all other investigations, but I don't know if I buy that -- during the setup, would the mods really think that to be a necessary power? How often would you expect the same person to be the target of multiple investigations?).

So unless I'm missing something, I only see two remaining possibilities -- 1) A role-blocker picked Dio and hit that 1/27 chance, or 2) Dio is lying.

And now that I read this:

Yesterday at 8:28am, Diomedes wrote:
Mr. Universe has cameras on everything and anything. My limits are only on what I can pay attention to.

...I'm becoming more and more convinced that either he was blocked, or that there is another option that I'm not seeing -- because damnit, the way that was worded makes a helluva lot of sense. Either someone is amazingly good at picking who to block, or I'm being played for a major chump. Either way, I'm buying Dio's story.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1252 on Yesterday at 9:02am »
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Unvote Tragic

Vote CatInASuit


If it's a choice 'twixt the two frontrunners, I don't think Dotchan is scum, so this is where my vote must go.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1253 on Yesterday at 9:14am »
[Quote]

We have currently 7 nonvoters:
CaerieD, Tragic, WhattheFrak
Dotchan, Mhaye, Hal, Greedy



The 2nd line of them have all been quite active and I believe are doing quite well in following along in the game. i have no worries on them.

WTF you have checked in, and stated you are trying to follow along.
Tragic- You've been here and there. Very There mostly.
CaerieD... I think you're dead in a ditch somewhere. Nothing from you....

Now Ideally, it'd be great to have 28/28 votes tom, but that's also kinda dumb if people are just voting randomly. So here's something, You 3 up top whose names I just mentioned, could you at least check in tommorrow? Just a simple:
"Hey, I'm here! Gosh this thread is so big! You guys Sure do post alot, Golly! I am intimidated so that's why I am actually lurking!"

Something like that. Or if you want to be EVEN MORE helpful:
"Gee, hey guys, I'm sorry i haven't been posting much. [insert excuse here], and also [insert observation on how much there has been already said]! But I'm on page ___ right now, and I'm trying to catch up!"

See, that way we know at least you're TRYING to read along and therefore we shouldn't worry about lynching/replacing you on Day 2. Because if you're at least making an effort to read along, that's cool, i know the thread is long. But when night falls, you all are going to have 2-3 days at least to read over the thread w/o any worry of NEW content being posted. So you'll have time to catch up and start day 2 just as if you were there the whole time!

But at least check in and say SOMETHING by tommorow, please?

Could we get a ModPoking of Tragic, CaerieD, and WTF? Just to make sure they're active/following along?
Honestly, I think you guys are there, and we're actually doing better on teh whole participating thing (but it's just those 3 i wonder about. Mostly CaerieD. Because if you're not checking in, or making an attempt to read this. I'd be down not for lynching you guys, but perhaps subbing you out on Day 2.
This way if you check in and say "I'm on page ___" we know you're trying*.

And then if you say nothing on Day 2.... You're lurking. And we'll know it.
>:(

But I'm pleased with the level of activity now for votes and such. This is good.
Carry On
~R
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1254 on Yesterday at 9:18am »
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Unvote Diomedes

His name has not been counterclaimed and his stated actions match the role, so I will accept it for now. If it is false then it will be exposed as the game continues.

Atarus' post #1182 on page 40 makes a good case against Cat. It is inconsistent to first say "To lynch someone based on their name though, as far as I am concerned, is a really dumb thing to do." and later say "Anyone who cannot find their character name at all is probably trying to hide their true name. So voting for someone whose name cannot be found is likely to turn up Alliance scum. This is nothing to do with mass claiming and everything to do with not actually being there. Sorry dotchan, this means you."


Vote CatInASuit
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1255 on Yesterday at 9:21am »
[Quote]


Yesterday at 9:14am, Roosh wrote:


[colorGreen]Could we get a ModPoking of Tragic, CaerieD, and WTF? Just to make sure they're active/following along?[/color]
Carry On
~R


I have spoken to both WTF and tragic within the last 24 hours or so, and I know they are around. Caerie I somehow missed as not being active. I will email her to see what is what.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1256 on Yesterday at 9:23am »
[Quote]


Yesterday at 8:54am, Hal Briston wrote:
Ok, if I put together what I know to be true, and take Dio at face value, then --

--Dio should have been able to investigate me without fail, barring outside interference.
--I was available for investigation (I know there was a theory posited about the person who successfully investigated me also blocked all other investigations, but I don't know if I buy that -- during the setup, would the mods really think that to be a necessary power? How often would you expect the same person to be the target of multiple investigations?).

So unless I'm missing something, I only see two remaining possibilities -- 1) A role-blocker picked Dio and hit that 1/27 chance, or 2) Dio is lying.

And now that I read this:

Yesterday at 8:28am, Diomedes wrote:
Mr. Universe has cameras on everything and anything. My limits are only on what I can pay attention to.

...I'm becoming more and more convinced that either he was blocked, or that there is another option that I'm not seeing -- because damnit, the way that was worded makes a helluva lot of sense. Either someone is amazingly good at picking who to block, or I'm being played for a major chump. Either way, I'm buying Dio's story.


Um, you should know that the last bit there is a quote from the movie.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1257 on Yesterday at 9:30am »
[Quote]


Yesterday at 8:54am, Hal Briston wrote:
Ok, if I put together what I know to be true, and take Dio at face value, then --

--Dio should have been able to investigate me without fail, barring outside interference.
--I was available for investigation (I know there was a theory posited about the person who successfully investigated me also blocked all other investigations, but I don't know if I buy that -- during the setup, would the mods really think that to be a necessary power? How often would you expect the same person to be the target of multiple investigations?).

So unless I'm missing something, I only see two remaining possibilities -- 1) A role-blocker picked Dio and hit that 1/27 chance, or 2) Dio is lying.

And now that I read this:

Yesterday at 8:28am, Diomedes wrote:
Mr. Universe has cameras on everything and anything. My limits are only on what I can pay attention to.

...I'm becoming more and more convinced that either he was blocked, or that there is another option that I'm not seeing -- because damnit, the way that was worded makes a helluva lot of sense. Either someone is amazingly good at picking who to block, or I'm being played for a major chump. Either way, I'm buying Dio's story.


I don't think Dio's claim is that important to us right now.

Think about it:

1. He is who he says he is. For some reason he was blocked (directly or indirectly).
2. He is not who he says he is (in other words, he's scum who tried to save his life via a false claim)

If 1, he'll

1.1 get NightKilled or
1.2 investigate successfully or
1.3 get blocked again

If 2, he'll
2.1 have to give us a valid investigation
2.2 claim he got blocked again (and the person whom he supposedly investigated would be able to verify that like Hal said)

At any rate, his survival hinges on the existence of town blockers or on his being scum. Additionally, any further "successful" investigations will continue yielding information, one way or another:
a."unsuccessful" investigations will get less and less believed (so, as scum, he'll have bought himself just a couple of Days)
b. successful investigations can be confirmed by the investigatee. Even if it's a scummy investigator

a. He would either have to guess names + alliances of those who were "watched"
b. Those who confirm his results would become suspects as soon as Mr Universe gets lynched/nightkilled.
c. If future investigatee's experiment similar symptoms as Hal did, they can compare notes with Hal so Mr Universe's claims are not unverifiable

Claim number 2 is unlikely at any rate; after all Hal knew he was watched toNight and Dio guessing that would have been unlikely, at best.

1.3-will he get blocked again (if he was blocked)? Good question. I guess it depends on who was targeted: the investigator or the investigatee... Any blocker would have been in the dark as to whom to block. If it's a scummy blocker who targeted the investigator, the odds get better ((s)he can subtract from his/her targets any players on his/her team). It depends on other factors as well, for instance, can the blocker use his/her power on Nights were someone gets killed?

Still, I believe the Alliance would try to get Mr Universe (either recruit him or kill him) rather than leaving him out there, ferreting out Player's identities. So: a NightKill attempt against him is extremely likely, if his story checks out.

Even if Hal and Dio are in cahoots, (Dio claimed to save his life, Hal confirmed indirectly to save Dio's life), a town investigator could verify Dio's identity, exposing Hal in the process. I don't think that happened, anyhow. It would have been far easier in that situation to keep quiet (on Hal's part)

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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1258 on Yesterday at 9:37am »
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Arrghhh, I hate the written word, if it can't be expressed in equations I don't want to know it. I wasn't meaning to imply in my last post that everyone should know that was a line from the movie. I was trying to say you should be aware that it was a line from the movie. And Hal, why would that make you buy Dio's story? I'm not getting the connection.
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 Re: Day 1
« Reply #1259 on Yesterday at 9:41am »
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Yesterday at 9:23am, sinjin wrote:


Um, you should know that the last bit there is a quote from the movie.


If it was, it was one amazing bubble-up from my subconcious.
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