One thing I fear about a no-lynch is based in another (albeit improbable and admittedly counter-intuitive) fear that if we don't produce a death to learn from toDay, the scum could either purposefully no-kill toNight, or have their Night kill blocked, and we'll be right back where we are on Day 2.
Day 1 has resulted in the exposure of so many names/roles and other information potentially useful to the scum. Without the hard and fast information that only a death can produce (whether it is a scum death or not), I'm concerned about what further exposures we risk if we go into Day 2 without a death.
Does that make any sense at all, or have these 45 pages succeeded in eating my brain?
I was thinking about that, but I can't imagine it's something they'd do unless they really think we'll cause MORE confusion and bring us farther from the truth with another Day of this.
IMO, if we no-lynch, they'll probably aim to kill someone they believe will net us the least information. Otherwise, they're not making any effort to reach their goal either.
The fact is they DO have useful information now. As others have said, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the claims we've seen is bogus. The difference is THEY know which ones are and are not, and they can discuss openly, without fear of tipping their hands, which ones they should and should not believe and how much.
Also remember, they have a collective knowledge of the sort of information contained in their role PMs (as much as I hate reasoning on that), meanwhile, each of us only has our own, which will give them better tools for picking out useful information (unless, of course, they're all nameless vanilla scum with identical PMs).
Remember, any information we gain, especially neutral information, helps close our information deficit to the scum.
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Re: Day 1 « Reply #751 on Sept 21, 2007, 3:37am »
Question: Who here is voting me because they find me scummy, and who is voting me "for information"?
If the second case, what makes you think I'm more valuable dead than alive? Yes, once I die my role will be mod-confirmed, but don't you think I'd be more interesting to leave alive? Even if you're 100% convinced I'm scum, you can still gain information based on how other people interact with me.
I'm mightily confused as to why everyone finds me so distractingly shiny - IMHO, my biggest flaw is that I tend to take votes way to personally (as evidenced by toDays action and the three times I was on the block in Psycopaths - I was so freaked out that I was actually getting stomach cramps, and I'm sure I wasn't as coherent as I'd like to have been) and I might not be able to express myself in a way that's clear for people. But I'd like to think that I'm a good person to keep around for a couple of Days or so.
Wine in front of me, how I hate thee, let me name the ways... Totally a townie. Obviously not scum. Mafia Playing Record {=}http://s2.images.proboards.com/tongue.gif{/=}
This was one of the major points of my argument against Roosh's plan. We should not be using peoples names, one way or the other, as any kind of major evidence to indict or exonerate anyone. Even if we find that several of the major characters are pro-crew, who's to say NAF/Kat didn't take some creative license with the story (ie, so-and-so was converted, prior to the start, by a reaver; someone had a "change of heart" for whatever reason; etc.).
Unfortunately, until we start lynching people, we're not going to to know yea or nay on this one. If this is the case, then all of the role-claims are up for grabs: there's no reason to think Wash or Inara or Mr. Universe are pro-crew, so any of our role-claims could be uncountered as scum. Where do you propose we go from here, then, in rooting out scum?
We don't have time to build a case against anyone else, but I can't vote for someone I believe to be town. Who then should I vote for? atarus has been further down on my probably scum list, but since everyone near the top has claimed, I suppose it's time to
Vote atarus.
Og help us all. I can't wait for this nightmare Day to be over.
At this stage, without providing ANY sort of reason, you DO realize this is essentially a no-lynch vote, right?
Then so be it. I'm not going to vote for someone who has given me adequate reason to think they are crew at this point. That takes
Roosh Dnooman Dotchan Diomedes CatInASuit and MadTheSwine
off the table for me.
Who knows...maybe 14 other people will vote for atarus too. I don't like the idea of not lynching, but I like the idea of lynching someone most people believe to be crew even less. If you believe Dotchan or CatInASuit are crew...don't vote for them! That's just how I feel about it.
M2 - Beat Cop - Killed by the Mafia (loss) Hispanola - Vanilla Crew - Alive at the end (win). Crazyville - Therapist - Killed by the Psychos and my Lover Kat took her own life - (win). Cult of Sekham - Alchemist - Blowed up by the Cult - (win). Firefly - Space Monkey! (see avatar) - Giving the airlocks a wide berth!{=}http://s2.images.proboards.com/kiss.gif{/=}
Sigh. I really thought I had something. Sorry Cat.
Don't worry about it. It is just that you only looked at it from the point of view of a scum doing it. Look at it from the point of view of a very nosy townie instead.
If the second case, what makes you think I'm more valuable dead than alive? Yes, once I die my role will be mod-confirmed, but don't you think I'd be more interesting to leave alive? Even if you're 100% convinced I'm scum, you can still gain information based on how other people interact with me.
Let me get this straight. Even if they consider you 100% scum, you are suggesting that they do not lynch you and follow you around to see how you interact with people?
Surely, at that point they should be voting for you instead?
I don't like the idea of not lynching, but I like the idea of lynching someone most people believe to be crew even less. If you believe Dotchan or CatInASuit are crew...don't vote for them! That's just how I feel about it.
Hockey Monkey: Considering how quickly you were prepared to lynch dotchan earlier in the day, what has changed your mind so that you no longer consider her to be scum?
Joined: May 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 116 Karma: 0 [ Exalt | Smite ]
Re: Day 1 « Reply #756 on Sept 21, 2007, 4:05am »
In which I go out on a limb
OR
The case for No-lynch
Hoo boy. I don't expect this to be a popular post, but I'd like to ask folks to at least read and consider. After a lot of re-reading, rethinking, and trying to apply some kind of reason to the situation, I have come to the conclusion that a No-lynch would be the best possible outcome of this Day given where we stand right now. I will outline why. See what you all think.
In M5 (The Sekham Game), the scum threw up a false Mason claim that was obviously intended to draw the town into lynching one of the claimants. One of the pro-town players (I think it was Queuing, but if you think I'm re-reading that thread right after re-reading this one, you're crazy) asked, in essence: "Why are we doing what the scum want us to do?"
As an observer, who knew he was pro-town, I thought that was a useful question. As I re-read, I tried to apply myself to figuring out the answer to one question: what do the scum want us to do?
The answer to that seems ostensibly obvious - they want us to kill a townie. Right? Well, sure... but how important, in the long run, is the outcome of this Day? Whatever we hit, there's a long way to go until the endgame. What else is of value to the scum?
See, I had been thinking about this closed set-up from the wrong angle - from my own personal angle, where I know nothing. But what makes this set-up work as a pro-town measure is that it decreases the size of the information deficit 'twixt us and the scum. In an open game, the scum knows a LOT that the town does not; the town, collectively and individually, knows almost nothing that the scum do not (the identities of the power roles, and that's it).
But in this game, it's different. The size of the information deficit is smaller. At baseline, the scum knew their own identities, and their role names, and that's it. They didn't know what pro-town power roles there might be, or what their powers might be, so they couldn't organize a plan to try to deal with those power roles. They didn't even know what kind of names the pro-town players had, so devising a false claim would be trickier. They knew one another, but apart from that, they were as in the dark as anyone, and that was to our advantage.
So what did the scum want, at the beginning of Day One? They wanted us to give them information. Just forcing a townie lynch wasn't especially useful. They wanted what we gave them, an orgy of bandwagons and role claims to fill in a whole mess of blank spaces on their scorecards.
And how to make sure that happens? Why, promote the idea that a no-lynch is a terrible thing! Pressure everyone to make sure they vote, to make sure that a no-lynch doesn't happen. Why not? By doing that, you sound incredibly pro-town (after all, everyone knows a no-lynch is scummy. Right?). But you also generate an environment where the idea of finishing the Day without a target is considered the worst thing that could possibly happen - so players leap from target to target, piling up votes and forcing role claim after role claim, not stopping to look carefully at each prospective target for fear of ending up without a majority.
We're being played here. The scum want us to consider a no-lynch a terrible thing because as long as we think that, we will continue to frantically seek out new targets - and force fresh role claims - at all cost.
I propose that a better Crew strategy for this particular game is to proceeed in a more measured fashion from here on out. Review the case against each player carefully. Don't escalate so quickly to the point of forcing a role claim just because you want to avoid a no-lynch. And if that means having no target in which you have confidence at the end of the Day, so be it.
Because for all those saying that a lynch is the only way we'll get information - this is unlikely to be true. ToNight, the scum will kill (as will any other role[s] with killing powers). We'll get information from those deaths. The scum can't just sit back and kill no one - sooner or later, if they do that, investigative roles will sink them. Speaking of which, we'll also get information from our investigative roles. If we have no target in whom we are confident, we are better off going into tomorrow with one fewer dead Crewperson.
So there you have it. I have a funny feeling that this opinion might get me into hot water toMorrow. We'll see. But I really think that by operating under the "lynch-at-all-costs" hysteria under which we have been operating, we are doing what the scum wants us to do. Why are we doing that?
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Re: Day 1 « Reply #757 on Sept 21, 2007, 4:15am »
I think I at least partially agree with you. My fear for no-lynch is conditional upon the fear that we will all continue playing as we have been toDay. If we can learn from our mistakes and truly be more conservative, then a no-lynch wouldn't be so bad.
M1 - vanilla townie - win M3 - vanilla townie - win M4 - subbed-out scum - loss (but I don't count this one, because I only played for 2 days. ) M5 - monk townie - win (by the skin of my teeth){=}http://s2.images.proboards.com/wink.gif{/=}
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Re: Day 1 « Reply #758 on Sept 21, 2007, 4:19am »
Ok story, I can buy into that. However, I have a counterproposal (albeit, one that it's probably too late in the day to implement):
I just took a look at the player list, and had four names jump out at me: CaerieD, tragic, whatthefrak and Yattara. 'twixt the four of them, I can't remember a single post. I'm sure they each put out at least a couple, but gorram if I can remember a word of them.
Now, in following with the theory of non-random scum posting patterns, it seems to me that there is an excellent chance of one of those four being scum.
So, we have dotchan on the block, who, it seems to me, if primarily getting votes for informational purposes. If we can quickly come to an agreement on one of those four, perhaps it might be possible to have a 25% chance of a scum lynch today.
Like I said, I have my doubts we could hash this out, choose one of the four and pin 15 votes on him/her in the next...what, four hours or so? But it might be worth the effort to try.
I don't like the idea of not lynching, but I like the idea of lynching someone most people believe to be crew even less. If you believe Dotchan or CatInASuit are crew...don't vote for them! That's just how I feel about it.
Hockey Monkey: Considering how quickly you were prepared to lynch dotchan earlier in the day, what has changed your mind so that you no longer consider her to be scum?
Well, it's been a rutting long Day. I voted for Dot at post 989, and unvoted at 1052. A whole rutting lot has happened since then to lead me to believe that she is not scum, most notably the tone of her posts, and other people's reactions.
If it weren't so late in the day, I would suggest that we take a serious look at some of the people who have voted for her since her claim...those were Diomedes, Cookies, drainbead, diggitcamara, Hal Briston, zeriel, MadtheSwine, and FCOD. Since Diomedes and Mad have role claimed, take those two off the list for now. I'll be focusing my attention during the downtime of the Night to the posts of these people. Hopefully, I'll be able to post some good analysis come Tomorrow Morning.
M2 - Beat Cop - Killed by the Mafia (loss) Hispanola - Vanilla Crew - Alive at the end (win). Crazyville - Therapist - Killed by the Psychos and my Lover Kat took her own life - (win). Cult of Sekham - Alchemist - Blowed up by the Cult - (win). Firefly - Space Monkey! (see avatar) - Giving the airlocks a wide berth!{=}http://s2.images.proboards.com/kiss.gif{/=}
I think I at least partially agree with you. My fear for no-lynch is conditional upon the fear that we will all continue playing as we have been toDay. If we can learn from our mistakes and truly be more conservative, then a no-lynch wouldn't be so bad.
NETA: My previous statement about wanting concrete information from a death was made with the assumption that the easiest way to get people to calm down a bit and play closer to the vest is to have some point of reference and some questions answered via a death.
Relying only on investigative reports (from any outed investigators), crumbs from the closeted investigators, and our own willpower will be the harder row to hoe. Harder but not impossible.
This begs the question: Since the investigative roles are only soft-confirmed at best (see the votes/suspicions against Dio) and the other investigative hints we have can be countered to out whoever mysteriously felt-up Hal last Night ("No, I'm the one who was fondled!"), can everyone keep this information at arm's length with sufficient, healthy skepticism?
M1 - vanilla townie - win M3 - vanilla townie - win M4 - subbed-out scum - loss (but I don't count this one, because I only played for 2 days. ) M5 - monk townie - win (by the skin of my teeth){=}http://s2.images.proboards.com/wink.gif{/=}
Joined: Jul 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 97 Location: Santa Fe, NM Karma: 1 [ Exalt | Smite ]
Re: Day 1 « Reply #761 on Sept 21, 2007, 4:30am »
My first thought is that we don't have time to all vote, wait for a counter claim, get it, and then unvote if it turns out we're getting a power role. Does it look to anybody else that Hal is just trying to get one more person to roleclaim, or ensure a townie is lynched? Assuming his numbers are right, we would have a 25% chance of getting scum by a mass vote in a few hours, but we would also have a 75% chance of getting a townie, with a chance that one of them may even be a power role.
Joined: Jul 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 40 Location: Under Zoe's thumb Karma: 2 [ Exalt | Smite ]
Re: Day 1 « Reply #762 on Sept 21, 2007, 4:34am »
I concur with both of Story's posts in regards to a no lynch being the best move right now. That, coupled with the lack of a counterclaim for the name Wash, leads me to Unvote Catinasuit.
I agree that this game would be all sorts of stupid if there were no Wash character. He has all the good lines IMO. I also can't fathom why the "real Wash", if there is one, wouldn't have counter claimed by now.
And how to make sure that happens? Why, promote the idea that a no-lynch is a terrible thing! Pressure everyone to make sure they vote, to make sure that a no-lynch doesn't happen. Why not? By doing that, you sound incredibly pro-town (after all, everyone knows a no-lynch is scummy. Right?). But you also generate an environment where the idea of finishing the Day without a target is considered the worst thing that could possibly happen - so players leap from target to target, piling up votes and forcing role claim after role claim, not stopping to look carefully at each prospective target for fear of ending up without a majority.
We're being played here. The scum want us to consider a no-lynch a terrible thing because as long as we think that, we will continue to frantically seek out new targets - and force fresh role claims - at all cost.
The reason I think a no claim is such a terrible thing is that the game is generally balanced so that random voting, with the addition of help from town power votes, balances out scum lynching. When we give the scum free days (or, yes, too many roleclaims so their nightkills are more accurate) to kill us, we shift the balance slowly and inexorably in their favor. Honestly, while your thoughts intrigue me, I wonder how much information we're really going to get by analyzing people's posts for these hidden, unintended scumtells, particularly after the first day. I think at this point, we're going to have to rely on the skills of our power roles (and I'm hoping that there aren't anymore players as unskilled as I in power roles) in outwitting the alliance: The doctor protecting the power roles, and me and whatever other investigative roles in outing them and leaving crumbs behind.
Quote:
So there you have it. I have a funny feeling that this opinion might get me into hot water toMorrow. We'll see. But I really think that by operating under the "lynch-at-all-costs" hysteria under which we have been operating, we are doing what the scum wants us to do. Why are we doing that?
I don't think your idea is intentionally bad, story... I'm just afraid that it doesn't work with the math, you know?
At this point, I'm up for lynching dot... or for Hal's idea of lynching one of the four lurkers. Honestly, lynching one of them will e the closest we'll come to true random lynch day one, which I really think is beneficial to the town. However, looking at the clock, I think we just have enough time to do one plan: yours, story.
I concur with both of Story's posts in regards to a no lynch being the best move right now. That, coupled with the lack of a counterclaim for the name Wash, leads me to Unvote Catinasuit.
I agree that this game would be all sorts of stupid if there were no Wash character. He has all the good lines IMO. I also can't fathom why the "real Wash", if there is one, wouldn't have counter claimed by now.
Mods, do we have a sub ready for CaerieD?
I am going to give her till the end of the Night to get back to me, and then I will sub her out. It has been less then 24 hours since I first poked her and she was active in the thread as recently as the 13th.
I REALLY want to avoid subs if at all possible.
ETA: 3 hours 54 minutes as of the datestamp at the top of this post.
Joined: May 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 57 Location: where I can't stand Karma: 2 [ Exalt | Smite ]
Re: Day 1 « Reply #765 on Sept 21, 2007, 4:37am »
storyteller, I'll admit you have something of a point. But I don't agree entirely. On consideration, I'm thinking that "no-lynch" today is not quite a terrible thing. It is worse than a lynch, but not the worst outcome.
One point I'd say is that the scum have higher hopes than that we'd just lynch crew Today. They're all too happy to let us talk ourselves to death so that they can bury us in our own confusion. If each Day goes like this one, they'll just pick us off at night while we fail to come up with a majority. And the longer it goes, the easier it will be for scum to split the vote. Which I'm pretty sure is what they're doing now. Maintaining confusion that will linger.
Another thing is that we know with almost certainty that at least one person will be attacked, probably killed, tonight who will not be scum. Our lynches we are never sure of, but at least we aren't deliberately targeting non-scum.
As for keeping information, the innocence or guilt of our candidates is already known to scum (Alliance scum, if there's more than one group). So there's not a whole lot to preserve anymore. No-lynch is not preferable since at some point we'll have to lynch anyway. Giving the scum a chance to regroup and drive the discussion tomorrow isn't a grand idea. The rest of us will still be in the dark.
You mentioned that the 'scum plan' might be to push us to force role-claims by shifting from vote to vote. My contention is that if everyone hadn't been so paranoid and claimed so early, we wouldn't be in this position. We would have had maybe three claims, at most, and probably more meaningful discussion. So if the scum were driving that in some way, it would be in encouraging role-claiming. Or doing a premature one themselves.
I was almost going to vote dotchan just so we wouldn't have to discuss it (sorry dotchan, but your death is the only way to demonstrate conclusively whether you're telling the truth, which right now only the scum know). Aside from making me feel like shit, I don't think it's the way to go.
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Re: Day 1 « Reply #766 on Sept 21, 2007, 4:41am »
Sorry, story, but one point stands out for me, in your post.
You see the scum as a group that "leads us". The thing is: that never has been true for the first couple of Days. In any of our games. Not even in the game where they were allowed to talk during the Day.
I do agree with you that we did a guay of a job to make it easier for scum to false-claim during the next few Days, because we have disclosed names and alignments left and right. But that would have been accomplished, at the latest, during this next Night (probably. It depends on how much information the Dusk posts actually contain).
But, like I have said before, we tend to overestimate the influence the minority has on the rest of us. We tend to disregard the need for secrecy they feel and which usually makes them act not as a group but as separate entities.
I definitely believe the first couple of Days should be treated as must-kill-Days. That's the only way to make people act naturally, otherwise the absence of pressure makes it easier to fake positions and overall shrug off remarks that are taken extremely seriously under these conditions.
It looks like we won't have a lynch toDay. But I definitely believe our goal for the next Day should be, again, to push through a Lynch. It's in our best interest.
M3 - Monk- Won the game (cast the winning vote) Hispanola - Vanilla Crew - Alive at the end (win) Crazyville - Doctor- Alive at the end (win) Cult of Sekham - Crusader - Killed by Cult... after I killed a Monk(loss--didn't kill at least one Unbeliever/Cult...because I'm stupid)/Vanilla townie (win). Firefly - Mason... again (to be determined)
Are we going to continue the pattern of "push a bandwagon until we get a claim, and then unvote and look for the next victim"? I almost want to suggest that we might as well bite the bullet and mass name claim right away, but I don't want to put our potential power roles in the unenviable position of choosing 'twixt 1) outing themselves on Day 1 or 2) lying to keep their names a secret and risking a lynch later.
No, I said vanilla town shouldn't claim unless they believe they were in danger of being lynched, which I thought I was. I was fairly sure the bandwagon would come rolling my way (because this was pretty much how I ended up on the block a couple of times in the Psychopaths game) so I decided to claim; as I mentioned above, in retrospect I probably could have afforded to wait a few more hours, maybe even a full day. I also figured that in the case that I do die, my rolename would take some sails out of Roosh's "mass nameclaim ASAP" plan, an idea that I believe should be tabled until we've got a couple more Days' worth of action under our belts.
Roosh never called for a mass nameclaim. He went thru several changes in his master plan but never called for a mass name claim. OMG I'm defending Roosh.
So is the second post just frustration or is it a trial ballon that sunk. It just seems strange after the first quote.
"We're flying a lot blinder than usual here"--[Wash]
And how to make sure that happens? Why, promote the idea that a no-lynch is a terrible thing! Pressure everyone to make sure they vote, to make sure that a no-lynch doesn't happen. Why not? By doing that, you sound incredibly pro-town (after all, everyone knows a no-lynch is scummy. Right?). But you also generate an environment where the idea of finishing the Day without a target is considered the worst thing that could possibly happen - so players leap from target to target, piling up votes and forcing role claim after role claim, not stopping to look carefully at each prospective target for fear of ending up without a majority.
The reason I think a no claim is such a terrible thing is that the game is generally balanced so that random voting, with the addition of help from town power votes, balances out scum lynching. When we give the scum free days (or, yes, too many roleclaims so their nightkills are more accurate) to kill us, we shift the balance slowly and inexorably in their favor. Honestly, while your thoughts intrigue me, I wonder how much information we're really going to get by analyzing people's posts for these hidden, unintended scumtells, particularly after the first day. I think at this point, we're going to have to rely on the skills of our power roles (and I'm hoping that there aren't anymore players as unskilled as I in power roles) in outwitting the alliance: The doctor protecting the power roles, and me and whatever other investigative roles in outing them and leaving crumbs behind.
Quote:
So there you have it. I have a funny feeling that this opinion might get me into hot water toMorrow. We'll see. But I really think that by operating under the "lynch-at-all-costs" hysteria under which we have been operating, we are doing what the scum wants us to do. Why are we doing that?
I don't think your idea is intentionally bad, story... I'm just afraid that it doesn't work with the math, you know?
At this point, I'm up for lynching dot... or for Hal's idea of lynching one of the four lurkers. Honestly, lynching one of them will e the closest we'll come to true random lynch day one, which I really think is beneficial to the town. However, looking at the clock, I think we just have enough time to do one plan: yours, story.
Wow, is that post scummy! You like Hal's idea that would force another claim today, and then cover yourself by agreeing with the no lynch because of clock time. This sounds to me like you're trying to have your cake and eat it too. You completely ignored the fact that this is a closed setup, and why that may change the effect of a no lynch. What is this math that you speak of? That last sentence just punches my scumdar right in the gonads.
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Re: Day 1 « Reply #769 on Sept 21, 2007, 4:44am »
Storyteller, I disagree,
I think the scum want not only the information generated by today, but also for us not to do anything with it.
By not going through with a lynch we allow the scum to be the arbiters of who will die. They will pick tonight the most opportune person and knock them off. If they decide to do that at all and not carry out other actions instead.
This could leave us tomorrow none the wiser apart from the town power roles and the scum having the advantage.
You are asking that the majority of the new information be kept to the power roles (town and scum) and away from the majority of the players ie. the vanilla townies.
You seem to be also assuming that no scum will be placed on a bandwagon as well and that the general vanilla town should only reach a lynch if they are really sure of the guilt of a player.
This will only occur as and when the town power roles come forth and confirm scum. This could be a problem with claim and counter claim going on.
I agree that tomorrow we should be more circumspect in our actions, but by not lynching today you remove a lot of context of todays actions.
Ok story, I can buy into that. However, I have a counterproposal (albeit, one that it's probably too late in the day to implement):
I just took a look at the player list, and had four names jump out at me: CaerieD, tragic, whatthefrak and Yattara. 'twixt the four of them, I can't remember a single post. I'm sure they each put out at least a couple, but gorram if I can remember a word of them.
Now, in following with the theory of non-random scum posting patterns, it seems to me that there is an excellent chance of one of those four being scum.
So, we have dotchan on the block, who, it seems to me, if primarily getting votes for informational purposes. If we can quickly come to an agreement on one of those four, perhaps it might be possible to have a 25% chance of a scum lynch today.
Like I said, I have my doubts we could hash this out, choose one of the four and pin 15 votes on him/her in the next...what, four hours or so? But it might be worth the effort to try.
Thoughts?
Sorry Hal, But I disagree. They should either be poked or subbed, but trying to arrange a lynch on a player with no information on them is just ... well... scummy.
Hockey Monkey: Considering how quickly you were prepared to lynch dotchan earlier in the day, what has changed your mind so that you no longer consider her to be scum?
Well, it's been a rutting long Day. I voted for Dot at post 989, and unvoted at 1052. A whole rutting lot has happened since then to lead me to believe that she is not scum, most notably the tone of her posts, and other people's reactions.
If it weren't so late in the day, I would suggest that we take a serious look at some of the people who have voted for her since her claim...those were Diomedes, Cookies, drainbead, diggitcamara, Hal Briston, zeriel, MadtheSwine, and FCOD. Since Diomedes and Mad have role claimed, take those two off the list for now. I'll be focusing my attention during the downtime of the Night to the posts of these people. Hopefully, I'll be able to post some good analysis come Tomorrow Morning.
Like I also told story, I think you overestimate the influence of the scum on any of toDay's events.
Look at past games. Seldom do you find more than two of the scum voting concertedly (excluding, of course, the latter Days of the game. Those are a diferent story). During the Day they try to "act naturally". They tend to disregard posts from their fellow scum. They (usually) vote separately (not clustering, for different people, etc.)
Remember: there are fewer of them around.
In addition to that, one point I've learned during these games is to absolutely not suspect people because they placed suspicions on people who don't look scummy to me. Other players spot behavior I wouldn't flag in a million years, and, surprisingly, they're sometimes right! Sometimes, of course, they are mistaken. And sometimes they are mistaken on purpose. But seldom is a person who acts different than me scum because they act different.
M3 - Monk- Won the game (cast the winning vote) Hispanola - Vanilla Crew - Alive at the end (win) Crazyville - Doctor- Alive at the end (win) Cult of Sekham - Crusader - Killed by Cult... after I killed a Monk(loss--didn't kill at least one Unbeliever/Cult...because I'm stupid)/Vanilla townie (win). Firefly - Mason... again (to be determined)
Hockey Monkey: Considering how quickly you were prepared to lynch dotchan earlier in the day, what has changed your mind so that you no longer consider her to be scum?
Well, it's been a rutting long Day. I voted for Dot at post 989, and unvoted at 1052. A whole rutting lot has happened since then to lead me to believe that she is not scum, most notably the tone of her posts, and other people's reactions.
If it weren't so late in the day, I would suggest that we take a serious look at some of the people who have voted for her since her claim...those were Diomedes, Cookies, drainbead, diggitcamara, Hal Briston, zeriel, MadtheSwine, and FCOD. Since Diomedes and Mad have role claimed, take those two off the list for now. I'll be focusing my attention during the downtime of the Night to the posts of these people. Hopefully, I'll be able to post some good analysis come Tomorrow Morning.
A) The "Who the guay is Ramiro? Did you just make that up? How would we know either way?" issue. Dnoo's observations aside, she could be parroting the "crewperson" stuff, and frankly her references to her role/alignment have been all kinds of all over the place.
B) We need 15 gorram votes to lynch. drainbeat calls me out on a list of non-voters at a time when I didn't happen to have a vote down. Is this some kind of "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scummy squeezeplay? I'm inclined to FOS both of you, but that can wait till Tomorrow.
C) If she is a townie and we end up killing her, it is the least damage we can do to ourselves, aside from comparative playing skills within the vanilla townie pool.
M1 - vanilla townie - win M3 - vanilla townie - win M4 - subbed-out scum - loss (but I don't count this one, because I only played for 2 days. ) M5 - monk townie - win (by the skin of my teeth){=}http://s2.images.proboards.com/wink.gif{/=}
Joined: May 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 35 Location: MH,NJ,USA Karma: 5 [ Exalt | Smite ]
Re: Day 1 « Reply #774 on Sept 21, 2007, 5:02am »
My first thought was "Uhhh..Pygmy? Dnooman? (and on preview, Cat) How in the guay are you thinking this is going to cause another role-claim? The entire point is that these players aren't even coming on to this board, so how would they even know to role-claim?"
However, I now realize that I had a few incorrect facts. 1) Yattara doesn't even belong on my original list. With 42 posts, they've got considerably more than I do, so I can't exactly classify them as a lurker (unless all those posts are in other areas of the board). 2) tragic and whatthefrak have both been online in the last 24 hours, so they very well could come in and role claim.
That only leaves CaerieD, who hasn't been online in a week. I fully expect that there is a major lurker among the scum, but that goes beyond all sense -- it calls more attention than it hides.
To sum up -- no, this wasn't a ploy to get another role claim out there. It was a way to lynch scum. Someone mentioned above is scum -- I'd bet anything on it, and I'm certainly more sure of that then I am that dotchan is scum.
Sorry, story, but one point stands out for me, in your post.
You see the scum as a group that "leads us". The thing is: that never has been true for the first couple of Days. In any of our games. Not even in the game where they were allowed to talk during the Day.
I don't see them as "leading," in this case. I see them as facilitating and promoting a strategic approach that has always been pro-town in previous games but isn't as much pro-town in this particular case. The easiest way to hide is to espouse a popular opinion that is widely believed to be pro-town; if that opinion happens to help your side, so much the better!
At this point, people, it seems like our choices are 'twixt dotchan and no-lynch, realistically.
So pick one.
While I agree with storyteller in that no-lynch isn't nearly as bad in closed-setup games, I do happen to think that dotchan has slipped up enough to merit a hanging, or raygunning, or whatever the guay you do to kill someone in Firefly.
M3 - Monk- Won the game (cast the winning vote) Hispanola - Vanilla Crew - Alive at the end (win) Crazyville - Doctor- Alive at the end (win) Cult of Sekham - Crusader - Killed by Cult... after I killed a Monk(loss--didn't kill at least one Unbeliever/Cult...because I'm stupid)/Vanilla townie (win). Firefly - Mason... again (to be determined)
I think the scum want not only the information generated by today, but also for us not to do anything with it.
By not going through with a lynch we allow the scum to be the arbiters of who will die. They will pick tonight the most opportune person and knock them off. If they decide to do that at all and not carry out other actions instead.
The scum will be the arbiters of all of that anyway. They're going to kill the most opportune person toNight, or do whatever they're going to do. Lynching someone toDay isn't going to stop that.
What I am NOT saying is that a no-lynch is the best option at every time. What I am saying is that a no-lynch is a better option than a townie lynch. I mean, I think it's fairly likely that you, CatinaSuit, are Wash, and are pro-town as you claim. From my perspective, should I vote to lynch you, on the general principle that we ought to lynch someone? How does that help our cause?
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This could leave us tomorrow none the wiser apart from the town power roles and the scum having the advantage.
Well, no. If the scum kill someone, we will be "the wiser." Their identity will be revealed. Their alignment will (probably) be revealed. And there is no guarantee that the person or persons killed will be pro-town, by the way (if they're are multiple scum factions, they can kill one another from time to time, too).
If they choose not to kill anyone, then they're stupid. ToMorrow starts same as toDay, but we have one more Night worth of investigations under our belt.
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You are asking that the majority of the new information be kept to the power roles (town and scum) and away from the majority of the players ie. the vanilla townies.
Well, sort of, yes, I am. I'm saying that we should be more circumspect collectively in this game than we would be in an open game - we have a tremendous advantage in this closed setup that we would not have in an open one, and we don't want to piss it away for no reason other than to satisfy an arbitrary "we must lynch every day" principle.
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You seem to be also assuming that no scum will be placed on a bandwagon as well and that the general vanilla town should only reach a lynch if they are really sure of the guilt of a player.
When did I say either of those things? I think the town should reach a lynch if they have creditable suspicion. It doesn't have to be "beyond a reasonable doubt," but every player other than dotchan has strong evidence supporting them, and the evidence against dotchan is, frankly, lame.
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I agree that tomorrow we should be more circumspect in our actions, but by not lynching today you remove a lot of context of todays actions.
Why? If we lynch dotchan and she is town, or she is scum, what "context" does that give us? Everyone voting for her at this point will be doing so mostly for the sake of getting a lynch in at any cost. Those votes will be easily disavowed going forward. It is better to analyze people's reasons for their actions, rather than the actions themselves - but we have created an artificial "reason" that can be used as crutch to explain anything ("well, we didn't want a no-lynch, right?"), which eliminates our ability to examine reasons.